Which Hero Will Claim the FaB World Championship? A Data-Driven Approach Using Monte Carlo Simulation

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As the 2024 Flesh and Blood World Championship approaches, speculation abounds over which hero will claim the title. To bring some data-driven insights, I ran a series of simulations using online matchup win rates from over 150.000 matches to predict each hero’s odds. By simulating a thousand championships and then a thousand top-eight elimination brackets, we can reveal the heroes most likely to secure a spot in the top 8 — and ultimately, to take the championship crown.

Methodology

To simulate a championship I leveraged Talishar.net data (available via FaBrary.net) for the month of October 2024 to run the following steps:

1. Hero assignment: 400 players are randomly assigned heroes based on the hero pick rate: if on Talishar players picked a hero 10% of the times, this will be assigned to ~10% of the players.
2. Pairings: players are paired based on their wins and losses (random for round 1).
3. Match simulation: for each pair, the results of the matches are determined by the hero-hero matchup win rates. For example, if Enigma has a 78% win rate against Arakni, 78% of “Enigma vs Arakni” matches will be won by Enigma and 22% by Arakni.
4. Repeat 2 & 3 for 10 rounds.
5. Record who made it to the Top 8.

This process was repeated 1.000 times to simulate 1.000 different possible world championship scenarios. Now, for each hero we can calculate the percentage of times s/he would end up in the top 8, offering insight into which heroes are well-positioned for a strong showing.

I then used these probabilities to simulate 1.000 top 8 direct eliminations, applying the same method used in step 3 to assign the winner. This allows us to estimate each hero’s probability of winning the championship once they reach this high-stakes stage.

Let’s dive into the results!

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Top 8 Contenders

Each hero’s top 8 probability reveals their likelihood of reaching the top 8 stage of the championship. This is critical for understanding which heroes are consistently powerful across matchups. Here are the heroes’ chances for a top 8 finish:

Top Performers

The clear leader in terms of top 8 consistency is Viserai, Rune Blood, with an impressive 89.9% chance of making it to the top 8. Aurora, Shooting Star and Florian, Rotwood Harbinger also show strong performances, with over 60% probability of advancing to this critical stage. These heroes demonstrate consistent strength across matchups, marking them as solid picks for players looking to navigate a full tournament.

Dark Horses and Wildcards

Dorinthea Ironsong and Azalea, Ace in the Hole have lower probabilities of making the top 8, but their chances should not be dismissed. In a volatile meta, these heroes can still make an impact with well-played matchups, even if they face an uphill battle compared to top contenders like Viserai and Aurora.

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Championship Win Predictions

Once heroes reach the top 8, the tournament shifts to an elimination format. Here, consistent performance can secure the title, but individual matchups and resilience under pressure play crucial roles. Below are the probabilities of each hero winning the World Championship:

Strongest Championship Contenders

Viserai, Rune Blood dominates once again, boasting a championship win probability of 23.2%, significantly higher than any other hero. Viserai’s consistent strength across matchups (as evidenced in my previous article), combined with his resilience in elimination rounds, makes him the prime candidate for the title.

Aurora, Shooting Star and Florian, Rotwood Harbinger follow Viserai as strong contenders, with win probabilities of 12.5% and 12.9%, respectively. These heroes have proven that, when in the top 8, they can perform exceptionally well, making them high-potential picks for those aiming for the championship.

Underdog Potential

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty may only have a 2.6% chance of winning the championship, but his inclusion as a competitor shows that even heroes with lower probabilities have a path to victory. Similarly, Azalea, Ace in the Hole and Vynnset, Iron Maiden both have decent chances of securing the title, especially if they navigate less favorable matchups through strategic play.

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Key Takeaways

1. Viserai, Rune Blood is the clear favorite for both top 8 and championship success. His high probabilities in both categories make him a reliable choice for the championship.
2. Aurora, Shooting Star and Florian, Rotwood Harbinger have both demonstrated strong chances of advancing through elimination rounds, making them formidable top 8 choices with solid championship potential.
3. While Victor Goldmane and Azalea may have lower chances of clinching the title, they retain a path to victory, illustrating that, in Flesh and Blood, even underdogs can surprise and make an impact with the right strategy.

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Limitations

While this analysis provides valuable insights into hero performance, several limitations should be noted. Firstly, the data is drawn from online matchups, encompassing players of varying skill levels, from beginners to seasoned experts, which could affect win rates and skew probabilities. In a World Championship setting, player skill and experience are crucial, as high-level players can maximize the potential of certain heroes in ways that may not be reflected in general online data. Additionally, the actual Championship format includes a draft portion alongside constructed play, introducing a layer of complexity and adaptability that isn’t captured in these simulations. The simulations also assume win rates are consistent across competitive levels and don’t account for players’ adaptations to an evolving meta. Real-life tournament pressure and sideboarding strategies—factors that significantly influence outcomes in high-stakes settings—are likewise not considered here. These limitations mean the results should be seen as an informative forecast rather than a definitive prediction.

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Conclusion: Who Will Be Crowned Champion?

My Monte Carlo simulations offer a glimpse into the probable outcomes for the upcoming championship. Heroes like Viserai, Aurora, and Florian emerge as favorites, but the path to victory is rarely straightforward in Flesh and Blood. While high probabilities suggest strong contenders, tournament play is full of surprises — player skill and adaptability will still be key.

Whether you’re rooting for a top contender or an underdog, understanding these probabilities provides valuable insight into the competitive landscape. May the best hero win in the right hands!