As the 2024 Flesh and Blood World Championship enters its final rounds, the tournament’s top 8 heroes have been revealed. In my previous analysis (which you can find here), I used Talishar.net data and Monte Carlo simulations to predict which heroes would make it this far. Heroes like Aurora, Dash I/O, Enigma, Viserai, and Nuu—the favorites in our predictions—are indeed represented in the top 8, with Florian being the only exception. This near-perfect prediction highlights the power of data-driven forecasting in competitive Flesh and Blood.
With the actual top 8 confirmed, I ran a fresh set of simulations to better understand each hero’s chances of progressing through the elimination bracket. Using the same win probabilities, I simulated 1,000 possible championship outcomes, based on the actual top 8 pairings:
The updated simulation data, shown in the plot below, reveals each hero’s projected chances of winning the championship given the initial pairings. Aurora leads with a 27.4% probability of taking the title, followed by Dash I/O (22.3%) and Enigma (21.0%).
Key Insights from the Simulation
Aurora, Dash, and Enigma’s high probabilities reaffirm them as top contenders for the championship. Although Viserai initially had the highest probabilities of success, his chances have diminished as he enters the finals with a lower probability. Meanwhile, Aurora and Dash each have two paths to the finals due to their multiple pairings, giving them a clear statistical edge in this high-stakes bracket. Still, Nuu remains a potential wildcard, as her unique playstyle could shake up the established top 8 hierarchy if conditions align in her favor.
Conclusion: Data-Driven Forecasting in Action
Our original analysis has held up remarkably well, with nearly all of the predicted heroes reaching the top 8. As these champions battle through the elimination rounds, the simulations suggest Aurora has the strongest likelihood of seizing the title. However, in Flesh and Blood, no amount of data (at my disposal) can predict the surprises and strategic plays that often define tournament finals. With the top 8 now fighting for the crown, the next rounds will ultimately test each hero’s adaptability and the players’ mastery under pressure.
